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Why kinase binding is dynamic

Some of the most successful modern medicines work by blocking protein kinases, molecular switches that control how cells grow, divide, and respond to signals. These proteins are important drug targets in cancer and many other diseases. But designing drugs against them is more complicated than it might seem.

Proteins aren't rigid structures; they're constantly moving, shifting between different shapes that can dramatically change how a drug interacts with them. And even when two drugs appear equally potent in a laboratory test, they may bind at different speeds, remain attached for different lengths of time, or inhibit the protein through entirely different mechanisms.

Understanding these differences is critical to designing better drugs. It also exposes a fundamental limitation of many current AI approaches to drug discovery. A single static picture of a protein, or a single predicted binding affinity, cannot capture the thermodynamics and kinetics that determine how drugs actually work.

A kinase switching from inactive to active

Movie 1. The KDR (VEGFR2) kinase domain moving from an inactive structure (PDB 2XIR) toward an active one (PDB 3WZD). At the start, the phenylalanine of the DFG (Asp-Phe-Gly) motif points into the ATP site, opening the back pocket that type II inhibitors occupy. During the transition, it flips back under the αC helix, its distance to the helix falling from about 18 Å to 5 Å, while the activation loop (A-loop) rearranges. The final structure is within 2.4 Å of the active crystal structure. Only the labeled regions are colored, key side chains are drawn as balls and sticks and named, and a dotted line marks the salt bridge between Lys868 and Glu885 whenever it forms; the kinase insert domain is hidden.

The landscape behind Movie 1

View Switches with each loop of Movie 1. Click to choose.
  • MSM state, DFG-out
  • MSM state, DFG-inter
  • MSM state, DFG-in
  • Transition path
  • Current frame of Movie 1
-2-1012 -0.1-0.0500.050.1 State 0: DFG-out, 1.9% of the equilibrium population State 1: DFG-in, 1.8% of the equilibrium population State 2: DFG-in, 1.8% of the equilibrium population State 3: DFG-out, 1.7% of the equilibrium population State 4: DFG-in, 2.8% of the equilibrium population State 5: DFG-out, 2.5% of the equilibrium population State 6: DFG-out, 1.4% of the equilibrium population State 7: DFG-out, 1.1% of the equilibrium population State 8: DFG-in, 1.6% of the equilibrium population State 9: DFG-out, 1.2% of the equilibrium population State 10: DFG-out, 3.2% of the equilibrium population State 11: DFG-in, 1.7% of the equilibrium population State 12: DFG-out, 2.7% of the equilibrium population State 13: DFG-out, 1.8% of the equilibrium population State 14: DFG-inter, 3.2% of the equilibrium population State 15: DFG-out, 1.6% of the equilibrium population State 16: DFG-in, 2.0% of the equilibrium population State 17: DFG-in, 1.7% of the equilibrium population State 18: DFG-inter, 1.2% of the equilibrium population State 19: DFG-out, 1.2% of the equilibrium population State 20: DFG-in, 0.9% of the equilibrium population State 21: DFG-out, 0.8% of the equilibrium population State 22: DFG-inter, 3.2% of the equilibrium population State 23: DFG-in, 1.0% of the equilibrium population State 24: DFG-out, 1.7% of the equilibrium population State 25: DFG-in, 4.3% of the equilibrium population State 26: DFG-out, 2.4% of the equilibrium population State 27: DFG-in, 0.9% of the equilibrium population State 28: DFG-out, 4.2% of the equilibrium population State 29: DFG-out, 2.5% of the equilibrium population State 30: DFG-inter, 1.8% of the equilibrium population State 31: DFG-out, 2.2% of the equilibrium population State 32: DFG-out, 1.2% of the equilibrium population State 33: DFG-in, 4.3% of the equilibrium population State 34: DFG-in, 2.6% of the equilibrium population State 35: DFG-in, 2.7% of the equilibrium population State 36: DFG-in, 1.7% of the equilibrium population State 37: DFG-out, 2.7% of the equilibrium population State 38: DFG-in, 2.2% of the equilibrium population State 39: DFG-inter, 2.6% of the equilibrium population State 40: DFG-out, 0.4% of the equilibrium population State 41: DFG-out, 3.6% of the equilibrium population State 42: DFG-out, 1.4% of the equilibrium population State 43: DFG-in, 1.6% of the equilibrium population State 44: DFG-in, 1.1% of the equilibrium population State 45: DFG-out, 1.5% of the equilibrium population State 46: DFG-in, 1.3% of the equilibrium population State 47: DFG-in, 1.5% of the equilibrium population State 48: DFG-out, 2.3% of the equilibrium population State 49: DFG-in, 1.3% of the equilibrium population inactive active tICA 1 (slowest motion) tICA 2

DFG-out · committor 0.00

0 1 2 3 4 5 inactive active Free energy along the path kcal/mol
Fig. 1. Free-energy landscape of the KDR kinase domain from adaptive constant-pH simulations, reweighted by a 50-state Markov model; more heavily shaded regions are lower in free energy (shown up to 5 kcal/mol). Dots are Markov states colored by DFG state, and the line is the path in Movie 1. The three views show the same path on different coordinates.

Protein kinases are therapeutic targets whose conformations change dynamically. Kinase binding depends on how the kinase changes shape, how long binding takes, and whether the inhibitor forms a covalent bond. All three affect how results are interpreted and how assays and designs are planned, and a single measured affinity value cannot tell them apart. Movie 1 and Fig. 1 illustrate a kinase transitioning between inactive and active conformations via intermediate states.

Binding is a property of ensembles

Binding affinity is a property of conformational ensembles. A ligand can select and stabilize conformations that the protein already visits, including rare ones1, and the binding free energy integrates over all bound and unbound states2. In protein kinases, the activation loop and the DFG motif influence which binding modes are open3,4. Movie 2 shows two type I inhibitors, which bind a DFG-in kinase, and two type II inhibitors, which bind a DFG-out kinase, each in a molecular-dynamics simulation.

Kinase–inhibitor complexes in motion

Movie 2. Four kinase–inhibitor complexes, each started from a predicted pose and simulated in explicit solvent. They are SRC with bosutinib and p38α with crizotinib (type I, top row), and ABL1 with imatinib and p38β with BIRB-796 (type II, bottom row). The type I inhibitors come from a public panel of clinical inhibitors5 and the type II inhibitors from a public kinase panel4. The kinases share one orientation (N-lobe up, hinge on the left), with the inhibitor in orange; only the labeled regions are colored (G-loop is the glycine-rich loop), and the β3 lysine and αC glutamate are named by role. Dotted lines mark the hinge hydrogen bond (blue) and the salt bridge between the catalytic lysine and the αC glutamate (rose).

Measured affinity includes the cost of reshaping the kinase

A type II inhibitor’s measured binding free energy includes both the binding free energy for a compatible kinase conformation and the free energy of reorganizing the kinase into it4. When only one state contributes to binding, we can write

ΔGexp=ΔGbind,s+ΔGreorg,s\Delta G_\mathrm{exp} = \Delta G_{\mathrm{bind},s} + \Delta G_{\mathrm{reorg},s}

Here, ΔGbind,s\Delta G_{\mathrm{bind},s} is the standard binding free energy for the inhibitor binding to state ss, such as a DFG-out conformation. The reorganization term depends on how populated state ss is in the unbound kinase’s equilibrium ensemble. If its probability is psp_s, then

ΔGreorg,s=−RTln⁡ps\Delta G_{\mathrm{reorg},s} = -RT \ln p_s

A rare binding-compatible state pays a larger population penalty than a common one. Combining the two terms gives the following for a single binding state.

ΔGexp=−RTln⁡[ps e−ΔGbind,s/RT]=ΔGbind,s−RTln⁡ps=ΔGbind,s+ΔGreorg,s\begin{aligned} \Delta G_\mathrm{exp} &= -RT \ln\left[p_s\, e^{-\Delta G_{\mathrm{bind},s}/RT}\right] \\ &= \Delta G_{\mathrm{bind},s} - RT \ln p_s \\ &= \Delta G_{\mathrm{bind},s} + \Delta G_{\mathrm{reorg},s} \end{aligned}

Two kinases can therefore bind the same inhibitor equally well within a compatible state yet differ a hundredfold in overall equilibrium affinity if that state’s unbound population differs a hundredfold.

When several states can bind, their contributions add inside the same logarithm.

ΔGexp=−RTln⁡∑sps e−ΔGbind,s/RT\Delta G_\mathrm{exp} = -RT \ln \sum_s p_s\, e^{-\Delta G_{\mathrm{bind},s}/RT}

This equation includes both the unbound populations psp_s and the state-specific binding strengths ΔGbind,s\Delta G_{\mathrm{bind},s}. It assumes a partition into distinct unbound states, equilibrium binding, and a common standard state for all binding free energies (here, 1 M).

In a public panel on ABL1, paired measurements favor the non-phosphorylated kinase, so phosphorylation may shift the conformational balance4. Protonation states also change the balance of kinase active and inactive states6,7.

Sampling kinase dynamics with adaptive simulations

Conformational changes such as the DFG flip happen on microsecond-to-millisecond timescales, longer than one unbiased simulation can affordably cover. Binding-compatible states may be rare, and kinetic barriers can keep a simulation from reaching them. Estimating a state’s free energy needs many samples that cover the whole ensemble, so sampling has to be efficient. Adaptive Markov state models (MSMs) are one efficient approach. Instead of running one long trajectory, adaptive MSMs run many short simulations in parallel8. After each round, the trajectories are described by the positions of the DFG motif, the αC helix, and the activation loop. These values are reduced to their slowest-changing combinations by time-lagged independent component analysis (tICA), clustered into states, and assembled into an MSM. The next round then restarts from the states visited least, so effort goes to the parts of the landscape that are still unexplored. This approach has mapped the activation pathway of Src kinase and proposed its intermediate states as drug targets9.

The transition in Movie 1 and the landscape in Fig. 1 come from our simulations run this way, using constant-pH molecular dynamics so that the protonation state of the DFG aspartate, which is coupled to the flip6, changes with the conditions and the conformation10. The landscape shows more than one transition path between states. In the tICA view of Fig. 1, the trajectory in Movie 1 crosses the middle of the landscape through DFG-in and intermediate states, while a second path is not visited by that trajectory.

Binding takes time, so assay timing matters

Affinity does not depend on time. A Kd, or a Ki measured at equilibrium, is an intrinsic property of a compound and its target at fixed conditions. An IC₅₀ is an assay readout. It depends on substrate concentration, incubation time, and the mechanism of inhibition, and it reflects the equilibrium value only once the assay has reached equilibrium. In a simple reversible two-state model, association and dissociation have rate constants konk_\mathrm{on} and koffk_\mathrm{off}, with Kd = koff/konk_\mathrm{off}/k_\mathrm{on}. Two compounds with the same Kd can stay bound for very different lengths of time. The residence time, 1/koff1/k_\mathrm{off}, can track how long a drug works in the body better than its affinity does11,12.

Type II kinase inhibitors stabilize DFG-out conformations, and imatinib binds c-Src by both conformational selection and induced fit13. Some type II inhibitors bind slowly. BIRB-796 binds p38 MAP kinase with slow association and slow dissociation14,15. A type II VEGFR2 (KDR) inhibitor leaves the non-phosphorylated enzyme with a half-life longer than four hours16. For slow binders like these, an assay read before equilibrium distorts the IC₅₀. Given enough time the IC₅₀ converges to its equilibrium value, but assays read at different times can give different IC₅₀ values for the same compound.

In our enzymatic assays, we measured each compound’s IC₅₀ after both 20 and 240 minutes of enzyme–inhibitor pre-incubation. Fig. 2 shows one example from each binding class. The type I example shifted 1.1×, the type II example 5.7×, and the covalent example 6.0×. A compound that binds and releases quickly gives the same IC₅₀ either way. A compound that binds more slowly looks more potent after the longer pre-incubation. Covalent compounds can also show a time-dependent shift in IC₅₀.

IC₅₀ shift with longer pre-incubation, by binding class

  • Example compound, IC₅₀ measured at both times
0.5× 1× 2× 5× 10× 20× no shift Type I, wild type: 1.1× more potent after 240 min 1.1× Type II, wild type: 5.7× more potent after 240 min 5.7× Covalent, wild type: 6.0× more potent after 240 min 6.0× Type IType IICovalent IC₅₀ at 20 min ÷ IC₅₀ at 240 min
Fig. 2. One example compound from each binding class, measured after 20 and 240 minutes of pre-incubation. The y axis is the ratio of the two IC₅₀ values, so 2× means twice as potent after the longer pre-incubation. Type I and type II are mostly inferred from predicted complexes rather than measured binding modes.

Benchmarks inherit this problem. Public affinity datasets often record a single IC₅₀, Ki, or Kd, without the incubation time or any rate constants, and affinity-prediction models typically predict a single equilibrium number. Unbinding simulations are one way to recover koffk_\mathrm{off}. Repeated exit simulations of eight p38α inhibitors gave relative residence times that tracked the measured kinetics17, and metadynamics has estimated the off-rate of a p38 type II inhibitor to within a factor of ten18. Movie 3 shows four steered unbinding simulations.

Inhibitors leaving the kinase pocket

Movie 3. Four type II inhibitors (imatinib on ABL1, naporafenib on BRAF V600E, quizartinib on FLT3, and BIRB-796 on p38β) pulled out of their pockets with steered molecular dynamics, in the same orientation but tipped 25° so that movement toward the viewer shows as movement down the screen. Imatinib and BIRB-796 leave sideways past the αC helix, through the type II back pocket; naporafenib and quizartinib leave through the front of the ATP cleft. Each panel is a single, forced pull, which shows a possible exit route and the contacts that resist it. Dotted lines mark the same hinge hydrogen bond and lysine–glutamate salt bridge as in Movie 2, and the hydrogen bond disappears as the inhibitor leaves.

Covalent inhibitor potency is a rate

Many targeted covalent inhibitors act in two steps. The inhibitor first forms a reversible complex, with dissociation constant Kd. The KIK_\mathrm{I} in the equations below is an effective kinetic parameter, KI=(koff+kinact)/konK_\mathrm{I} = (k_\mathrm{off} + k_\mathrm{inact})/k_\mathrm{on}; it approximates Kd only when bond formation is slow compared with dissociation of the reversible complex. In the second step, the inhibitor’s reactive group forms a bond with a nearby residue, usually a cysteine, with a first-order rate constant kinactk_\mathrm{inact}:

E+I  ⇌  E⋅I  →  E−I\mathrm{E} + \mathrm{I} \;\rightleftharpoons\; \mathrm{E{\cdot}I} \;\rightarrow\; \mathrm{E{-}I}

At inhibitor concentration [I][\mathrm{I}], active enzyme disappears at the rate

kobs=kinact[I]KI+[I]k_\mathrm{obs} = \frac{k_\mathrm{inact}[\mathrm{I}]}{K_\mathrm{I} + [\mathrm{I}]}

and, in this approximation, after a pre-incubation of length tt a fraction e−kobste^{-k_\mathrm{obs}t} of the enzyme remains unmodified. Some unmodified enzyme may still be reversibly inhibited. Well below saturation, kobs≈(kinact/KI)[I]k_\mathrm{obs} \approx (k_\mathrm{inact}/K_\mathrm{I})[\mathrm{I}]. That makes the second-order constant kinact/KIk_\mathrm{inact}/K_\mathrm{I} the standard measure of covalent potency19.

Because irreversible inactivation accumulates, measured IC₅₀ depends on time. In practice the IC₅₀ eventually levels off near the enzyme concentration in the assay19. This is consistent with the shift seen for the covalent example in Fig. 2, and it is why a single IC₅₀ measured at one time point cannot give the rate constants. Movie 4 shows a covalent inhibitor’s reactive group approaching a target cysteine residue until the bond forms.

A covalent kinase inhibitor reaching its cysteine

Movie 4. Osimertinib bound to EGFR, its acrylamide closing on Cys797 until the two form a covalent bond. The frames are predicted structures of the reversible complex followed by the bonded product. Dotted lines mark the hydrogen bonds to the hinge residue Met793 (blue) and a salt bridge from Glu804 to the drug’s dimethylamino group (rose), and the forming bond to Cys797 is labeled with its distance.

This has two consequences for design.

  • Two parameters. KIK_\mathrm{I} comes from reversible recognition, and kinactk_\mathrm{inact} from the warhead’s reactivity and its position relative to the nucleophile. Potency is their ratio, so a weakly reactive warhead can still give a potent drug if the reversible complex is tight. In a study of investigational covalent EGFR inhibitors, high reversible affinity (below 1 nM) compensated for low reactivity20. Low reactivity also limits off-target reactions, which leaves more of the selectivity to the reversible step.
  • Scoring needs the reaction. An affinity model that predicts an equilibrium number addresses reversible recognition, rather than the full kinetic parameter KIK_\mathrm{I} or the reaction rate. Scoring a covalent design also needs the geometry that places the warhead next to the nucleophile, and the reactivity that sets kinactk_\mathrm{inact}.

What this means for affinity models

A single measured affinity combines three things. These are how tightly a ligand binds a given conformation, how often the kinase adopts that conformation, and, for slow and covalent binders, how long binding takes and whether a bond forms. A model that predicts one equilibrium number cannot recover residence time or kinactk_\mathrm{inact}, and affinity data measured at one incubation time include kinetic effects that such a model cannot represent. Residence time and the reaction rate need other tools, such as the unbinding simulations above for koffk_\mathrm{off} and models of the reaction for covalent inhibitors.

For drug design, this means the same measured potency can come from different mechanisms, with different selectivity and duration of action. Ensembles can show which conformations a design can exploit, including intermediates that end-state structures miss. Kinetic and covalent measurements show how long and how irreversibly a compound acts. For this reason, a single affinity value should be read together with the conformational ensemble, the incubation time, and the reaction rate.

Contributions

  • Conceptualization. Connor Bybee, Benjamin Rousseau, Robert A. Galemmo, and Fernando Martinez.
  • Data curation. Connor Bybee and Jiaqi Zhu.
  • Formal analysis. Connor Bybee and Benjamin Rousseau.
  • Investigation. Connor Bybee, Jiaqi Zhu, Xiaotong Lu, Patrick Visperas, Benjamin Rousseau, and Malhar Kute.
  • Methodology. Connor Bybee, Xiaotong Lu, Patrick Visperas, Benjamin Rousseau, and Anthony M. Giannetti.
  • Project administration. Connor Bybee and Benjamin Rousseau.
  • Resources. Connor Bybee and Jiaqi Zhu.
  • Software. Connor Bybee, Benjamin Rousseau, Andre Graubner, Tomas Salgado, and Scott Leishman.
  • Validation. Benjamin Rousseau.
  • Visualization. Connor Bybee and Jiaqi Zhu.
  • Writing – original draft. Connor Bybee.
  • Writing – review & editing. Jiaqi Zhu, Robert A. Galemmo, Anne Pipathsouk, and Anthony M. Giannetti.

References

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  2. Gilson, M. K. & Zhou, H.-X. Calculation of protein-ligand binding affinities. Annu. Rev. Biophys. Biomol. Struct. 36, 21–42 (2007). ↩

  3. Taylor, S. S. & Kornev, A. P. Protein kinases: evolution of dynamic regulatory proteins. Trends Biochem. Sci. 36, 65–77 (2011). ↩

  4. Vardanyan, V. H. et al. Results of a large-scale study of the binding of 50 type II inhibitors to 348 kinases: the role of protein reorganization. J. Med. Chem. 69, 9507–9520 (2026). ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4

  5. Saifudeen, M. et al. Comprehensive profiling of clinically approved kinase inhibitors reveals mutation-specific inhibitors and opportunities for drug repurposing. Nat. Biotechnol. (2026). ↩

  6. Shan, Y. et al. A conserved protonation-dependent switch controls drug binding in the Abl kinase. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 139–144 (2009). ↩ ↩2

  7. Meng, Y., Lin, Y.-l. & Roux, B. Computational study of the “DFG-flip” conformational transition in c-Abl and c-Src tyrosine kinases. J. Phys. Chem. B 119, 1443–1456 (2015). ↩

  8. Husic, B. E. & Pande, V. S. Markov state models: from an art to a science. J. Am. Chem. Soc. 140, 2386–2396 (2018). ↩

  9. Shukla, D., Meng, Y., Roux, B. & Pande, V. S. Activation pathway of Src kinase reveals intermediate states as targets for drug design. Nat. Commun. 5, 3397 (2014). ↩

  10. Aho, N., Buslaev, P., Jansen, A., Bauer, P., Groenhof, G. & Hess, B. Scalable constant pH molecular dynamics in GROMACS. J. Chem. Theory Comput. 18, 6148–6160 (2022). ↩

  11. Copeland, R. A., Pompliano, D. L. & Meek, T. D. Drug–target residence time and its implications for lead optimization. Nat. Rev. Drug Discov. 5, 730–739 (2006). ↩

  12. Copeland, R. A. The drug–target residence time model: a 10-year retrospective. Nat. Rev. Drug Discov. 15, 87–95 (2016). ↩

  13. Morando, M. A. et al. Conformational selection and induced fit mechanisms in the binding of an anticancer drug to the c-Src kinase. Sci. Rep. 6, 24439 (2016). ↩

  14. Pargellis, C. et al. Inhibition of p38 MAP kinase by utilizing a novel allosteric binding site. Nat. Struct. Biol. 9, 268–272 (2002). ↩

  15. Regan, J. et al. The kinetics of binding to p38 MAP kinase by analogues of BIRB 796. Bioorg. Med. Chem. Lett. 13, 3101–3104 (2003). ↩

  16. Iwata, H., Imamura, S., Hori, A., Hixon, M. S., Kimura, H. & Miki, H. Biochemical characterization of a novel type-II VEGFR2 kinase inhibitor: comparison of binding to non-phosphorylated and phosphorylated VEGFR2. Bioorg. Med. Chem. 19, 5342–5351 (2011). ↩

  17. Braka, A., Garnier, N., Bonnet, P. & Aci-Sèche, S. Residence time prediction of type 1 and 2 kinase inhibitors from unbinding simulations. J. Chem. Inf. Model. 60, 342–348 (2020). ↩

  18. Casasnovas, R., Limongelli, V., Tiwary, P., Carloni, P. & Parrinello, M. Unbinding kinetics of a p38 MAP kinase type II inhibitor from metadynamics simulations. J. Am. Chem. Soc. 139, 4780–4788 (2017). ↩

  19. Strelow, J. M. A perspective on the kinetics of covalent and irreversible inhibition. SLAS Discov. 22, 3–20 (2017). ↩ ↩2

  20. Schwartz, P. A. et al. Covalent EGFR inhibitor analysis reveals importance of reversible interactions to potency and mechanisms of drug resistance. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 173–178 (2014). ↩